Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

Ssayer

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I didn't do the numbers, but the guy that posted it seems to be one of those kind of people that are anal about doing so.
 

tigerwillow1

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I didn't do the numbers, but the guy that posted it seems to be one of those kind of people that are anal about doing so.
I'll stick my neck out and say I don't believe the table in post 6,537. The obvious reason is that there's no way that the raw data from December has fully propagated into the national overall count. I looked into a similar YTD dreaths table that was roaming around the Internet a few months ago. I spent a couple of hours digging out the government supplied state-by-state YTD deaths, and what I found was the data from the latest month was very incomplete. About 10 states hadn't reported in yet, contributing zero deaths to the count. Whoever made up the "smoking gun, no excess deaths" table used the incomplete data from the latest month in the table to "prove" no excess deaths.

I caution against believing any of this type of info unless a link can be provided to see it on some sort of official and/or credible web site. I certainly won't believe ay claimed 2020 totals until at least the end of January.
 

David L

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I'll stick my neck out and say I don't believe the table in post 6,537. The obvious reason is that there's no way that the raw data from December has fully propagated into the national overall count. I looked into a similar YTD dreaths table that was roaming around the Internet a few months ago. I spent a couple of hours digging out the government supplied state-by-state YTD deaths, and what I found was the data from the latest month was very incomplete. About 10 states hadn't reported in yet, contributing zero deaths to the count. Whoever made up the "smoking gun, no excess deaths" table used the incomplete data from the latest month in the table to "prove" no excess deaths.

I caution against believing any of this type of info unless a link can be provided to see it on some sort of official and/or credible web site. I certainly won't believe ay claimed 2020 totals until at least the end of January.
It will be interesting to see the result though, just wondering if it will actually increase that much with Flu deaths count down/disappearing, it may get to 1% instead of .9% avg.
 
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Let's see, eleven months of data that is within normal variation. Missing some numbers to make month 12 completely accurate. We'll toss out the whole thing and say that the death rate is astronomical because of the CCP Virus/China Virus. Typical of those seeking total control of everything.
 
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Frankenscript

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Anyone interested in the excess death count statistics can visit the page with the currently most accurate and up to date information here:


1610040998944.png

Draw your own conclusions.
 

Frankenscript

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Jessie's suggestion of waiting for the full year numbers seems prudent. However, the spike in deaths in the weeks of April-May (coincident with early COVID-19 peak) and again in the summer and fall, coincident with the disease peaks at those times give an early read on what the results will be. The number of total all causes deaths in the lowest-death (full data) week of 2020 after the pandemic started (so, looks to be late June) is higher than almost any week in the prior years shown on the chart. So, I anticipate we will see that 2020 was a high-death year.

Given the 8 week potential backlog for full data, let's reconvene first week of March and look at the totals for the year.

Meanwhile, I'm including this because it caught my interest and I thought you might be interested too. This is a chart of cumulative incidence of COVID-19 following injection of first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, or placebo. It shows that for approximately the first 11 days or so, there's no difference between the two groups in COVID-19 infection rate. After that, the vaccine shows pretty clear infection reduction. Second dose would be at around day 21 (it's not indicated on the chart, but that's the protocol)

1610059311282.png
Source: Original article at NEJM:
 

tigerwillow1

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Anyone interested in the excess death count statistics can visit the page with the currently most accurate and up to date information here:

I'm not going to believe any of this massaged data and/or prediction information for a minute. It's just questionable statistics massaged by somebody with an agenda. I want to see the raw data for the actual death count, period, and make my own conclusion. The closest I've found is data that's broken down by state, week of the year, and age group. Trying to roll that up into totals is for me a huge exercise because it's more than 183,000 columns of data. Perhaps there's a better source for the raw data than what I've found, and/or somebody who knows spreadheets better could get the totals with a lot less work. Here's a small example of the data:

Capture.JPG

Notice that the final 6 weeks of the 2019 data is fairly constant, while the count tails off for the final 3 weeks of 2020. That's because they don't have all the data yet for the end of 2020. But even after all of the data is in, there are all sorts of warnings, such as:

Capture1.JPG

So even the raw data is massaged. Then it gets massaged more before it's presented for general public consumption. And we should just bend over and believe it.
 

vandyman

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Jessie's suggestion of waiting for the full year numbers seems prudent. However, the spike in deaths in the weeks of April-May (coincident with early COVID-19 peak) and again in the summer and fall, coincident with the disease peaks at those times give an early read on what the results will be. The number of total all causes deaths in the lowest-death (full data) week of 2020 after the pandemic started (so, looks to be late June) is higher than almost any week in the prior years shown on the chart. So, I anticipate we will see that 2020 was a high-death year.

Given the 8 week potential backlog for full data, let's reconvene first week of March and look at the totals for the year.

Meanwhile, I'm including this because it caught my interest and I thought you might be interested too. This is a chart of cumulative incidence of COVID-19 following injection of first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, or placebo. It shows that for approximately the first 11 days or so, there's no difference between the two groups in COVID-19 infection rate. After that, the vaccine shows pretty clear infection reduction. Second dose would be at around day 21 (it's not indicated on the chart, but that's the protocol)

View attachment 79135
Source: Original article at NEJM:
All your credibility in this thread went to hell after the raging rant in the political thread.

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Frankenscript

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For what it's worth, the events of Wednesday and our different reactions to it have convinced me that any political conversation I get involved with on this forum adds to the problem, and I won't be doing it anymore. I won't be posting in the election/politics thread anymore, ever, though I do occasionally read it to gain insight on what Trump supporters think of things.

As to this thread, I'm also swearing off politics. It's a waste of all of our time. Anything I post that is posited as a fact will be backed up with a credible link; believe it, or don't, it's up to you. But I'm out of the business of arguing about mask rules or why Sweden's early response was not an example we should follow.

@tigerwillow1, I applaud your skepticism and interest in digging into the numbers behind the death counts. If ithis were 15 years ago I would have tools and ability to help you out... realistically the data needs to be pulled into a tool like SQL and worked with there. But my skills have atrophied and my job has changed to the point where I no longer have access to the right tools, and crunching large databases never turned into a hobby for me. I will say, however, that while the determination of what constitutes expected or excess death thresholds is certainly speculative and subject to scrutiny of the math and weighting, the actual death counts reported are as reliable data as that agency can make them. Many individuals and groups sift that data on a routine basis, so the if the death counts didn't match the underlying data set, it would be obvious and remarked on. This could be interpreted as well as "if they are faking the death weekly bar chart, they are also faking the underlying data." I leave it as an exercise to the user to decide where to land on that.
 

Q™

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On 9/11 about 3,000 people died in one day.

Wednesday about 4,000 people died from Covid.

About a week after 9/11 I had to fly somewhere. When I went to St. Louis Airport they had put all these new identity and baggage check restrictions in place. Pairs of soldiers were walking all over the terminal with weapons displayed. If anyone had any doubt the nation was at risk a trip to any airport would clear that right up. It was a Holy Shit This is Real moment.

Donald Trump's political influence on the nation is over.

CDC needs to go to Homeland Defense and TELL them this is a national crisis and we need to increase our efforts to stop the spread.

Put military medical teams at all the airports and bus stations. Seeing a bunch of soldiers working there send a clear message to civilians that the shit is real. We have mislead the general public with all this pansy assed back and forth discussion and nice guy approaches.

CDC has the lead on pandemics in the US. It is the Center for Disease CONTROL not the Center for Disease Blather.

Go to Congress and TELL them what to do. Exercise the leadership you have been tasked with.

Stop giving suggestions and guidelines and give us a fucking plan!

Wrong or right positive, directive action on the part of CDC gets attention from citizens. Putting people in uniform out on the streets shows a level of concern far greater than a 15 minute talk on TV.

Fucking do something positive!
 
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