Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[tigerwillow1]

lt's funny that the AMA now says hydroxychloroquine does have beneficial results in treating the CCP Virus.

What's funny? It's totally logical that the science about a political disease will change. Remember, elections have consequences! The dems need a trend reversal they can take credit for.

 

[tigerwillow1]

The flu has disappeared this year because masks and social distancing have reduced it's prevalence by 10-20 told, based on monitoring data.

And of course it has nothing to do with blaming everything possible on covid, regardless of its real cause. If Biden really gets ordained on Jan 20, I won't be shocked if all of a sudden flu deaths spike up and covid deaths spike down.

 

[Frankenscript]

And of course it has nothing to do with blaming everything possible on covid, regardless of its real cause. If Biden really gets ordained on Jan 20, I won't be shocked if all of a sudden flu deaths spike up and covid deaths spike down.

One of the reasons I participate here is because I really do appreciate being exposed to different ways of thinking outside my liberal bubble. I get that there are many different interpretations of things. But sometimes I really can't understand the logic behind the different viewpoints. This flu thing is something that the people I know who are "traditional republicans" totally seem to agree with me on, but the people who are "Trump republicans" come up with weird COVID-19 conspiracies about.

Let me walk through it, step by step, and I ask you to tell me which of these steps you disagree with, so I can learn where our opinions diverge.

1. The flu, as in influenza A and B, is a respiratory virus primarily spread in the air by droplets expelled from the mouth and nose of infected people, and breathed in or taken in via eyes and similar routes in healthy people.
2. Secondary transmission modes of flu include infected droplets landing on things that are later touched by healthy people, who touch their eyes, faces, etc. and get sick that way. Toilet flushes also spread it.
3. Flu spread has been conclusively shown to be dramatically contained by infected people wearing simple cloth masks, which trap many of the infected droplets, reducing spread. It has been common in Asia for people either feeling ill or having any symptoms, or those living with ill folks, to wear masks in public to protect others in the event they may be infected.
4. COVID-19 is a respiratory virus with similar modes of infection as influenza.
5. COVID-19 has been shown to have a substantially higher R value, a measure of it's infectiousness. It takes less exposure to a sick COVID-19 person than one who has influenza to get sick. Initial infectiveness, or R0, has been measured between 2.5 and 3.5 meaning on average one infected person infects something like 3 others before getting better or dying.
6. Masks trap droplets from mouth and nose; you can see this in any number of visualizations and tests. They aren't perfect by any means, but a lot better than nothing.
7. Because masks trap droplets with COVID-19 in them, wearing masks in public reduces spread by infected people who may not know they are spreaders.
8. The flu spreads mostly in places where people are face to face. So does COVID-19. Offices and other workplaces, schools where kids are face to face, churches and stadiums and so forth. The more you are around other people's exhaled breath, including speaking, singing, coughing and sneezing, the more you are at risk. Being outside dilutes the risk somewhat, being trapped inside with poor air systems increases risk.
9. Starting in March, people have been around each other much less this year than in other years, statistically speaking, and when they have been around each other, they've often been wearing masks.
10. Broadly speaking, social distancing measures have reduced "Face to face" time, and thus have reduced BOTH COVID-19 spread and FLU spread.
11. Since the flu is less transmissible than COVID-19, it's easier for its transmission to be significantly reduced. Remember, once R<1, the number of people carrying it starts to drop
12. The flu typically has an R0 (meaning initial infectivity) of around 1.6. COVID-19 is closer to 3. If you cut face to face time in half, flu effective R value drops below 1, and over time fewer people have it. But COVID-19 would still have R value around 1.5, so COVID-19 would be still growing under these conditions... deeper cuts to face time are required to contain it.
13. Measured values of flu prevalence around the country range from 5-10% of usual values this time of year.
14. Since we've been isolating and wearing masks for 9 months now, it's likely the effective R value for flu has been low enough for much of this time that it has been fading away due to social distancing. This is supported by longitudinal data over time.


As somoene who works in the broader health arena and has for decades, none of the above statements seems in any way controversial and all of them can be backed up by very objective research, facts and figures. I would love to know at what point our reasoning diverges.

 

[bigredfish]

I’m not a “Trump” Republican. I’m a conservative who happens to believe that liberals are prone to lying more. You and most liberals still don’t get that it’s not about Trump. He just happens to be the one that is exposing the swamp. Could have just as easily been someone else and you’d hear the same from us.
That is what should really concern you. ...That aside

10. Broadly speaking, social distancing measures have reduced "Face to face" time, and thus have reduced BOTH COVID-19 spread and FLU spread


Except it’s not.
The Wuflu spread is spiking like never before (you keep telling us so) and regular flu all but non existent. your argument and that statement are contradictory...

 

[Ssayer]

and that's a fact, BRF, and I don't even know who you're addressing since I no doubt have him on ignore...

 

[Frankenscript]

I’m not a “Trump” Republican. I’m a conservative who happens to believe that liberals are prone to lying more. You and most liberals still don’t get that it’s not about Trump. He just happens to be the one that is exposing the swamp. Could have just as easily been someone else and you’d hear the same from us.
That is what should really concern you. ...That aside

10. Broadly speaking, social distancing measures have reduced "Face to face" time, and thus have reduced BOTH COVID-19 spread and FLU spread


Except it’s not.
The Wuflu spread is spiking like never before (you keep telling us so) and regular flu all but non existent. your argument and that statement are contradictory...

@bigredfish , thanks for the reply.

Thanks for pointing out where we diverge in our thinking. It really is useful. I would buy you a shot of bourbon, if I could.

Let's drill down a bit. If I had broken it down further, as follows:

10a. Broadly speaking, social distancing measures have reduced "Face to face" time
10b. Reduced face time has reduced BOTH COVID-19 spread and FLU spread

Would you agree to 10a, but disagree with 10b?

See, maybe 10b would be better phrased as:
10b. Reduced face time has reduced BOTH COVID-19 and FLU spread compared to what it would have been without the reduction in face time

Would you agree with that?

But, the data clearly show COVID-19 is spiking, and FLU declined, and this is perfectly consistent with the reduction in face time bringing R for Flu under 1, while the R for COVID, which had a higher initial value, is still above 1, so COVID is growing.

Do you have an alternative theory as to why flu has been on the decline, while COVID -19 has grown?

 

[mat200]

.. This flu thing is something that the people I know who are "traditional republicans" totally seem to agree with me on, but the people who are "Trump republicans" come up with weird COVID-19 conspiracies about.
..

FYI - number of "traditional republicans" / "trump republicans" do believe in science and the scientific method, they just may not be noticed during these times.

Those that voted for Trump in the past, voted because they wanted the swamp drained. Many still want the swamp drained... there is plenty of data showing that the current system is so corrupt that it is in serious need of reform. ( this is why you do see the establishment against Trump .. )

I've seen numerous emotional responses from all sorts of political spectrum corners which for one point or another seem to reject science.

Guess I just have to get used to the handbasket that we are currently riding in...

 

[tigerwillow1]

Let me walk through it, step by step, and I ask you to tell me which of these steps you disagree with, so I can learn where our opinions diverge.

I'm actually not disagreeing with any of the steps. For most of them I don't have any background or knowledge to evaluate them. I'm coming from looking at the big picture:

1. The llberals and anti_Trumpers have weaponized covid against Trump.
2. The mainstream press has been using covid to paint Trump as negatively as possible.
3. Parts of the medical establishment have a financial incentive to inflate covid diagnosis numbers.
4. States and other municipalities have a financial incentive to inflate covid diagnosis numbers.
5. The many instances of false positives.
6. The controversy about antigen tests and cycle counts.
7. Many instances of deaths obviously due to other causes attributed to covid.
8++: The other things I don't remember quickly.

Then all of a sudden flu deaths are way down? IT LOOKS AND SOUNDS FISHY!

Just as believable as all of the hugely improbable events of the recent election all randomly popping up in same direction at the same time. As believable as 10,000 consecutive flips of an honest coin coming up the same.

 

[Frankenscript]

Keep in mind, all, that I live in Indiana. I know a LOT of what I call traditional republicans, and even at my workplace (back when I went into an office) republicans outnumbered democrats.

I'm really quite interested in all this stuff. I recognize that I'm not going to change anyone's mind about politics, and I'm not trying to.

 

[bigredfish]

10A yes
10b No. You keep going in the same circle. Wuflu spread has not been reduced. Lockdowns, masks, etc and we're still seeing the largest ever spike.

And I hardly reject science. I reject "science" that has an agenda attached to it that is far from proven. Kinda like the "science" that said we'd all be 10ft underwater by 2010 or so if we didnt stop using cars and keeping cows from farting.

 

[sebastiantombs]

So let's see, the flu and flu deaths are way down due to masks and social distancing but the CCP Virus infection and death rates are way up under the same set of circumstances. Makes perfect (non) sense.

I can believe that the flu rate is down, but not to the levels being reported with the CCP Virus spreading. You mention flu being transmitted by "droplets" getting to the eye. I assume that these are micro droplets to be able to float in the first place. Even with a mask those micro droplets are getting out at a pretty good number. If you wear glasses and a mask you know exactly what mean, which makes it all that much harder to believe.

 

[Frankenscript]

10A yes
10b No. You keep going in the same circle. Wuflu spread has not been reduced. Lockdowns, masks, etc and we're still seeing the largest ever spike.

And I hardly reject science. I reject "science" that has an agenda attached to it that is far from proven. Kinda like the "science" that said we'd all be 10ft underwater by 2010 or so if we didnt stop using cars and keeping cows from farting.

We're seeing the largest ever spike because we only briefly got R back below 1 (varied by state, but broadly over April/May and still in the summer in some places). Then R got back up over 1 in most places and it spread more widely, when restrictions were removed. In Indiana it's a very clear picture of cause and effect. Things were great here over the summer until things opened up, then BAM it started spreading. But our governor wanted normalcy in the run up to the election, so he didn't put the brakes on. It's now out of control.

The result:


We are now about twice as badly off as we were in April.

Dates of restrictions being applied and lifted can be found here:

Documenting Indiana's path to recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020-2021

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

The short story is stage 5 where most restrictions were off started in second half of September. A few weeks later the death toll crept up.

 

[Frankenscript]

So let's see, the flu and flu deaths are way down due to masks and social distancing but the CCP Virus infection and death rates are way up under the same set of circumstances. Makes perfect (non) sense.

I can believe that the flu rte is down, but not to the levels being reported with the CCP Virus spreading. You mentio flu being transmitted by "droplets" getting to the eye. I assume that these are micro droplets to be able to float in the first place. Even with a mask those micro droplets are getting out at a pretty good nuber. If you wear glasses and a mask you know exactly what mean, which makes it all that much harder to believe.

Again, see the explanation of how the same precautions (distancing/masks) will have a varied effect depending on the R0 of the disease. This stuff is not necessarily obvious to people who don't have a background in it, but a certain amount of reduction of interaction can be enough to get disease "A" to go into contraction of cases while still allowing disease "B" to grow. It's all about doing what is necessary to get "R" to a value below 1. It's harder for COVID because it has an initial value of around 3... you gotta cut interaction down by >66% to get COVID to start to slow down. For flu, with an R0 around 1.6, you need less than a 50% reduction.

 

[Frankenscript]

I'm actually not disagreeing with any of the steps. For most of them I don't have any background or knowledge to evaluate them. I'm coming from looking at the big picture:

1. The llberals and anti_Trumpers have weaponized covid against Trump.
2. The mainstream press has been using covid to paint Trump as negatively as possible.
3. Parts of the medical establishment have a financial incentive to inflate covid diagnosis numbers.
4. States and other municipalities have a financial incentive to inflate covid diagnosis numbers.
5. The many instances of false positives.
6. The controversy about antigen tests and cycle counts.
7. Many instances of deaths obviously due to other causes attributed to covid.
8++: The other things I don't remember quickly.

Then all of a sudden flu deaths are way down? IT LOOKS AND SOUNDS FISHY!

Just as believable as all of the hugely improbable events of the recent election all randomly popping up in same direction at the same time. As believable as 10,000 consecutive flips of an honest coin coming up the same.

3. Hospitals get paid more for covid cases because of the PPE they need to use and the amount of staff needed for these cases. This is a financial incentive. Doctors don't get paid more to diagnose folks with COVID-19, though.

4. I don't doubt this is true, but how come so many republican-run states are doing this?

5. Depends what you mean by "many" false positives. It's a very small percentage of the total when you look at the big volume labs testing sick people who wonder if it is COVID. It's a bigger percentage when you look at the labs specializing in screening apparently-healthy people, but again this is a small part of the total testing.

6. Antigen tests can be good at testing for infectious COVID but miss a lot of positives; the cycle counts for PCR tests are very controversial but they are designed to miss as few real cases as possible. This is a worldwide thing; it's not just the US or liberal-controlled labs doing it.

7. This is where I really call BS. There are certainly SOME bogus calls mixed in, but of the 300k+ diagnosed COVID deaths, almost all of them are caused by COVID-19. The presence of comorbidities doesn't mean COVID didn't kill those people. Sure, the sweep looking for COVID on the death cert picks up a few "fell off a ladder and died of broken neck, happened to have COVID-19 at the time" but almost all of the deaths are from things like respiratory failure, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress, and related things caused by COVID. Most people don't know how to interpret the data so come to false conclusions. For example someone was all in a fuss about "folks dying of poisoning, with COVID, being marked as COVID-19 deaths." This data actually is almost totally people who were sick with COVID-19 and took too much tylenol for headache and fever, or phenylephrine for congestion, hoping it would help. These OTC medicines are actually pretty toxic and it doesn't take much to do damage to the liver/kidneys that shows up on blood tests. Mostly the poisoning isn't what killed these folks, but it would show up as a comorbidity when their lungs give out and they die. My point is, not a lot of people are qualified to look at the CDC data and understand what it means. I only know about this stuff because it is relevant to my work.

OK, gotta get dinner ready for the family. Peace, everyone.

Whatever you believe about all this stuff, I hope you and your families stay safe this holiday season.

 

[mat200]

I am so disappointed with the entire USA on this...

imho:
1) It is clear to me that we have numerous failures in the entire system. I believe a lot of this can be attributed to the influence of money corrupting the system to behave and act in a manner which is not for the greater good of the USA.
2) Science and data have been completely ignored / manipulated for political and financial gains.
3) Many people no longer know who to trust. MSM and Social Media has failed completely as trustworthy groups. WHO is no longer trustworthy.
4) We are in a new cold war, with a disunified nation and a weak and corrupt President and Vice President.
5) We had a Pearl Harbor / 9-11 event and MSM ignored it.
6) Vaccines are being wasted in each vial as each has a little extra and it is getting tossed out. ( each Pfzier vaccine vial has enough for 5+ doses.. that extra part is getting tossed.. sometimes it is almost 6 doses in a vial...

I know many still do not want to recognize the facts, but the S&P 500 is at all times highs and many are unable to pay their bills while Pelosi argues for 1/2 of what Trump offered in the past deal.

We're Just one big basket going to hell

 

[bigredfish]

You're exactly right @mat200

Part of the problem is that we've learned that we can no longer take the word of various "authorities" at face value.
How many contradictions have we heard in just 9 months from various organizations and "experts" in the medical community?

I know some like to pontificate that it's just us dumb knuckle dragging Republicans are too stupid to understand the 'science", but maybe, just maybe, we're so tired of being lied to, we don't believe anything you say any more.

Who's fault is that?

 

[mat200]

FYI -

I'm looking for better masks for the family.. found this on another forum:
( I am 100% am certain this is an airborne virus and while most younger folks can weather it, the elderly can get hit hard - and some doctors still following outdated CDC procedures imho )

Powecom KN95 Respirator Mask - FDA Authorized - Bonafide masks - 10 Pack $8.55 20 pack $16.02 with coupon code THANKS10
Use coupon - THANKS10

https://bonafidemasks.com/Powecom-kn-95/

This youtube reviewer does a good job:

Attempting to reduce the chance of any of the elders in the family from getting this bugger, so the entire family which visits the elders need to be protected. Some family members imho would not survive a serious cold / flu / wuhan.

Also going with lots of Vitamin-D

( btw will post this in a new chat )

 

[bigredfish]

Exactly the kind I got my 82 yo mother. Of course she tends to wear the "more comfortable" cloth mask, but it is one of the better made ones with all the right layers and filter and fits tighter than the N95.. oh well... She's also doing the vitamin D thing, she works outside in the yard every day for 3-4 hours

 

[bigredfish]

California Governor Gavin Newsom is killing Americans

The Democrat Left is killing people with their horrible and inept handling of the WuFlu virus. They must not be "following the science"...

California is becoming a Wuhan virus epicenter

 

[Ssayer]