Hurricane Ian

[bigredfish]

Busy day

latest has it going in at Venice. The weather nerds say could be as far south as Cape Coral.

We’re in Tavares for reference. Lake county.
24 hours ago the eye was to come out of Tampa and skim us to our west in Sumter county.
12 hours ago it shifted east and was showing the eye passing right over top of us.
The latest run moved further East/South still and shows it passing now off to our east more or less Orlando.

5 pm update coming up but really at this point the models mean less than real time radar. Gonna be a nail biter..

 

[bigredfish]

FYI
NHC follows TVCN models as their go to bible

From the Stormtrack forum
Let's talk about the TVCN consensus model
Spaghetti plots. We have all seen them around social media and weather forums. So much data to take in, it all becomes a blur. But have you noticed the TVCN consensus model which is usually very close to what the NHC forecast is? How can it be so (relatively) accurate?

Let's dive into where the TVCN model gets it's data from.

1) The average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.

2) The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.

3)The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.

So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.

 

[wittaj]

 

[Parley]

I just heard that Biden called on 3 mayors in Florida but did not call Desantis. What a prick this Biden guy is. I also have not heard of FEMA doing anything.

 

[bigredfish]

Our Gov is doing a great job on his own. He’s getting things done and not waiting on the Feds

 

[bigredfish]

What a complete and total putz.

 

[bigredfish]

NHC 5pm track

 

[Parley]

NHC 5pm track

View attachment 141072

Yep, as of now somewhere South of Sarasota and North of Port Charlotte.

 

[Sybertiger]

My biggest fear, that it'll go up I-4. Poot.

 

[bigredfish]

Id feel a lot better if it would move another 30+ miles south. Still in the 80+ wind zone sustained

 

[Parley]

I see that the pressure has dropped some with the latest readings. It has gone down from 952MB to 947MB.

 

[Sybertiger]

The drop in pressure was expected. There's an outer eye wall that will take over the inner eye wall to reform a new one then it'll spin up again.

 

[Parley]

The latest guesstimate is around the Fort Meyers-Port Charlette area. The landfall mark keeps drifting South.

"Latest 11pm NHC track update. Another nudge SE. Expected to be a CAT 4 at landfall. Serious storm on the way with a CAT 3 expected well inland"

 

[Sybertiger]

I see the 11pm report shows it shifted east a little more. It's getting close to the path of Hurricane Charley in 2004.

Ian makes a break toward Florida; catastrophic rains expected » Yale Climate Connections

A faster, earlier landfall is now predicted for Wednesday afternoon.

yaleclimateconnections.org

 

[fergenheimer]

Overnight in Fort Meade Florida 1/2" of rainfall and 10-20 mph winds that started late. Center of the cone of uncertainty was directly overhead. It still looks like it's on the same track. Just stronger.

 

[TonyR]

@bigredfish , @Sybertiger and other Floridians...
It's 0656 CT.
Y'all OK or busy staying afloat right now?
Thinkin' and prayin' about y'all and your neighbors....matter of fact....ALL Y'ALL !

 

[Flintstone61]

Jim Cantore is Posting up in Punta Gorda.
That's one guy you don't wanna see showing up in your town ahead of a storm.

Where is Jim Cantore? Weather Channel meteorologist spotted in Punta Gorda

Jim Cantore is on the move in Florida, moving from Clearwater Beach where he spent a few days reporting on Hurricane Ian. He's now in Punta Gorda.

www.news-press.com

 

[The Automation Guy]

Now a very strong category 4 hurricane (actually just shy of a Cat5) with maximum sustained winds of 155mph.

 

[bigredfish]

Just starting to get some heavier rain and outer feeder bands in central FL. Conditions will get uglier as the day goes on. First the tornados, lots of rain, later towards dinner we’ll start seeing “ Holy Shit” winds throughout the night and tomorrow

Worst for us will be late afternoon today through sunset Thursday.

Will try to keep you updated. Lots still to do as I have to finish packing go bags for mom and truck loaded and get things ready to leave unexpectedly if need be.

 

[Sybertiger]

https://media.npr.org/assets/graphics/2022/09/hurricane-ian-forecasts.gif