Hurricane Ian

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To everyone in Ian’s possible path we pray for you to not suffer any damage.

We have a home in PSL but aren’t there right now; we’re in Reno. However, we are staying glued to the Weather Channel.

As an aside, I wonder how many Teslas are parked on the side of the freeway/turnpike because they ran out of battery power.
 

Flintstone61

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Yeah my Brother is in Naples. his GF is in Tampa, she's supposedlly coming South and I guess they will monitor the situation. She is at elevation 3 feet in Tampa. SO yeah she gotta go...LOL
Edit: he/they got an invite from my highschool chum John W. to come to Miami to escape the " Cone of Death" as he calls its. He's says Tampa floods easy.
 
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bigredfish

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Have they reversed southbound 10 or 95 yet?
Not that I know of. Problem is they still don’t know where it’s going. GFS model still has it bumping Tampa, stalling, then crawling up the coastline to the bend of the panhandle. The Euro last run an hour ago has it going in at Venice, then pulling a Charlie and driving right up the middle of the state into GA. This has the dirty side of the storm on the East coast!

Kinda damned if you do damned if you don’t regardless if you go north or south. I’m 30 miles NW of Orlando and doing the deer in headlights thing right now.

Since moving in with mom we”re now in a 50 yo metal box. Got the generator set, all of our prep done, everything secure, Go bags in vehicles, and essentials, important papers along with firearms all ready to bug out in case the roof comes off.

We’ll probably decide Wednesday noon whether to stay or go 30 miles East to a buddy’s place that is much sturdier and well prepped. Depending on which model you look at we’re facing 6-15” of rain and 60-100 mph winds
 
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fergenheimer

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I am just north of Tampa Bay. Last forecast I saw was to hit Pinellas County (Saint Petersburg and Clearwater) and head up the western part of the state. That puts me just to the east of the eye. All bets are off until it crosses Cuba. @Parley I hope you are in Riverview III. The first two are very flood prone. I have seen the Little Alafia breaching Lithia Pinecrest. Maybe I should have watched the news but anyone in low lying areas need to evacuate. @Flintstone61 I would not count Naples or even Miami as out of the woods yet. Charlie in 2004 was on a very similar path toward Tampa Bay and took a hard right into Port Charlotte then up the center of the state. It was a tight and fast booger that ripped things apart. @JNDATHP my Polestar will be fully charged and in the garage. My Ram is filled with diesel and ready to go. I will be working the night shift so may get to drive home in the storm. They were predicting a foot of rain. @bigredfish you should be plenty far east right now. But tornados spawned are a wild card.
 

fergenheimer

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I do not know if 75 or 95 are reversed yet or not. Probably not. Since I drive 75 south bound to work, that would be a problem.
 

Parley

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I am just north of Tampa Bay. Last forecast I saw was to hit Pinellas County (Saint Petersburg and Clearwater) and head up the western part of the state. That puts me just to the east of the eye. All bets are off until it crosses Cuba. @Parley I hope you are in Riverview III. The first two are very flood prone. I have seen the Little Alafia breaching Lithia Pinecrest. Maybe I should have watched the news but anyone in low lying areas need to evacuate. @Flintstone61 I would not count Naples or even Miami as out of the woods yet. Charlie in 2004 was on a very similar path toward Tampa Bay and took a hard right into Port Charlotte then up the center of the state. It was a tight and fast booger that ripped things apart. @JNDATHP my Polestar will be fully charged and in the garage. My Ram is filled with diesel and ready to go. I will be working the night shift so may get to drive home in the storm. They were predicting a foot of rain. @bigredfish you should be plenty far east right now. But tornados spawned are a wild card.

The house is just off of Boyette road in the new Jeter Creek community. I hope that is Reiverview III.
 

bigredfish

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I thought I may be far enough east as well, but the best prediction currently is 6-10" of rain and 60+mph sustained :facepalm:

Some recent models

GFS that @fergenheimer mentioned 72 and 96 hours from now
gfs2.jpg gfs3-96.jpg

Euro just 2 hours ago doing the Charlie thing but much slower mover
euro.jpg

Rainfall - X marks my spot
X2jKKHx.jpg

Its all very clear :lol:
8201970-D-75-CE-4839-AFB7-13-AF1-E8-DB1-FA.jpg
 

fergenheimer

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@Parley I think Boyette road is higher ground but the map that @bigredfish attached shows 20+ inches for Riverview! Wow. I am in the 12-15" range by that map. Work is 8" area. Bigredfish, your X looks more like Leesburg-Eustis area. Depending on the level on the chain of lakes, it might absorb 12" of rain. The wind though is a different problem. I thought you were over in Wekiva springs area for some reason. I lived right on Lake Harris for several years.
 

ncpilot

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Wilmington, NC checking in... I feel for you guys... I've weathered "a few" hurricanes here in last 24 years. Just recently installed a 20kw whole house gen, which of course guarantees no direct hits for us this year... /sarc.

We flood, but not as bad as a bit further inland. I'd bet average elevation in Wilm is around 30', if you're not right on coast. As the crow flies, I'm 1.2 mi from intercoastal, hell, Wilm is sandwiched between the Cape Fear and ocean...

All the best...

BTW, for those following the spaghetti models, keep an eye on the UK products, they seem to be most accurate over the years, and those have consistently showed a sharper right turn...
1664247777167.png
 

bigredfish

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Yep we sold the place off Wekiva Springs in June for obscene/retire tomorrow money and moved in full time with mom off Dead River road in Tavares. My dock is on a canal 200 yds from the Dora canal. Idea was to hang out here and do the snowbird thing back n forth to a place on my bro in laws 80 acres up in a mountain in Tioga county PA.

It’s one thing to ride through one of these in a concrete block house and 15 years of prep, quite another to do it in a 60+ yo mobile home on the canal with an 84 yo stroke victim who I have to help feed, walk, go to the head, and has both heart and breathing issues….. WHILE holding down a 50+ hour a week manager job
 

bigredfish

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Wilmington, NC checking in... I feel for you guys... I've weathered "a few" hurricanes here in last 24 years. Just recently installed a 20kw whole house gen, which of course guarantees no direct hits for us this year... /sarc.

We flood, but not as bad as a bit further inland. I'd bet average elevation in Wilm is around 30', if you're not right on coast. As the crow flies, I'm 1.2 mi from intercoastal, hell, Wilm is sandwiched between the Cape Fear and ocean...

All the best...

BTW, for those following the spaghetti models, keep an eye on the UK products, they seem to be most accurate over the years, and those have consistently showed a sharper right turn...
View attachment 141022
Yup, thus the dilemma!

Levi’s site is a must go-to for hurricane info.
 

bigredfish

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11 o’clock update from NHC follows the latest GFS and TVCN models as expected (black and gray lines on @ncpilot chart above) which puts it right over my head as a Cat1 after making a real mess of the Tampa/St Pete area.
8FD71666-CAE6-47BF-942F-69A8ECF08687.png

I prefer the UK/Euro models taking in south of us and up the east coast. Pulling for those UK models!
 
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