Pandemic threat? Anyone else concerned?

[Arjun]

Reminds me of that movie Dumb and Dumber and Idiocracy. Its becoming reality.

Alabama students throwing 'COVID parties' to see who gets infected: Officials

Rising infections prompt Gov. Kay Ivy to extend 'Safer at Home' orders.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Arjun]

What's even more puzzling is how the US Education system is eager to reopen in-person classes. First of all, the bulk of the student population is between the ages of 18 and 30! I find it absolutely idiotic to fast track to resuming in-person sessions especially in classrooms that are smaller than the typical bedroom, clustering 20+ students with very little room to spare. And here's the irony; young adults are mainly responsible for transmitting these infections due to being asymptomatic for the first few days.

 

[Parley]

Big Win for Re-opening Supporter Governor Brian Kemp as Georgia COVID-19 Deaths Hit 3-Month Low

In a bit of news you can file under “good,” Georgia’s COVID-19 deaths have reached a three-month low. I asked a while back when Governor Brian Kemp was going to get an apology from the media. This question was rhetorical, of course.




Georgia Reopens
One of the first movers to reopen the economy, Governor Kemp was attacked by the press and the Health Experts™ as reckless and incompetent. They were dishonest then, and they are dishonest now. No one said COVID-19 was going away. We needed to flatten the curve, and it would appear Georgia has been successful in doing so.

Since reopening on April 22, the 7-day rolling average of deaths due to COVID-19 has consistently declined, according to the state’s dashboard. The last average outside the 14-day window for reporting accuracy is 16.14 per day. This count is the lowest rolling average since March 29. Preliminary data shows continued declines despite reopening and protests that began a month ago.

While we know deaths lag the confirmed cases by between two to three weeks, Georgia’s uptick in daily cases started around May 18. That date is a full month before the 14-day window cutoff of June 18. Part of the reason may be that the age range with the highest total cases is 18-29, where the risk of death is very low. The majority of confirmed cases are under 50 years of age.

It would seem Georgia has done a reasonably good job of protecting the vulnerable and allowing the young and healthy to go about their business. On June 30, Governor Kemp signed a bill strengthening nursing home guidelines, which included protections related to COVID-19.

Big Win for Governor Brian Kemp as Georgia COVID-19 Deaths Hit 3-Month Low

pjmedia.com

 

[Parley]

NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again?

A new NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been reached on a flawed premise.

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person's blood rather than the virus itself.

The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.

"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.

Many people will recall the fatality risk debate that took place prior to and in the early stages of the lockdowns. There was much discussion over how deadly the virus was and what the collective response to the virus should be.

NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again? | Jon Miltimore

Prof. Neil Ferguson, who in 2005 said up to 200 million might die from bird flu (about 100 did), told the New York Times in March that the “best-case scenario” was 1.1 million Americans dead from COVID-19. By listening to modelers such as Ferguson, did the experts subject the world to the...

fee.org

 

[Arjun]

Too many politicians were watching Zombie Apocalypse movies before declaring the pandemic as a national emergency. The reopenings and reclosings would have been entertaining near Halloween. Trick or Treat

NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again?

A new NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been reached on a flawed premise.

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person's blood rather than the virus itself.

The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.

"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.

Many people will recall the fatality risk debate that took place prior to and in the early stages of the lockdowns. There was much discussion over how deadly the virus was and what the collective response to the virus should be.

NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again? | Jon Miltimore

Prof. Neil Ferguson, who in 2005 said up to 200 million might die from bird flu (about 100 did), told the New York Times in March that the “best-case scenario” was 1.1 million Americans dead from COVID-19. By listening to modelers such as Ferguson, did the experts subject the world to the...

fee.org

 

[Parley]

Now Even the WHO Is Saying You Shouldn't Wear a Mask in Public All the Time

As political forces in the United States push for strict mask mandates to fight the spread of the coronavirus, new guidance issued by the World Health Organization undermines the left’s claim that people must be forced to wear the protective equipment in public.

The WHO posted the updated recommendations in a Wednesday tweet.

This most recent change, which outlines when people should not wear a mask in public, follows months of inconsistent information from the group about face coverings.

...

“People should NOT wear masks when exercising,” the WHO’s update reads, “as masks may reduce the ability to breathe comfortably.”

When wet with sweat, the organization explained, masks become more difficult to breathe through. It said unmasked people should keep a distance of “at least one meter” from others while exercising.

...

the globe’s top health organization is OK with maskless people being about 3 feet apart in public — something that is now against the law in Washington state.

...

WHO’s disastrously inconsistent guidelines.

If you are healthy,” the organization wrote in February, “you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected [COVID-19] infection.”

...

In late May, more than two months after the WHO declared a global pandemic, it was still recommending that only the sick and those taking care of the infected should wear masks.

...

WHO failed the world with its ineptitude and favoritism toward China.

Even now, the global health group is unable to make a consistent recommendation on the seemingly simple subject of face coverings.

It appears as though the WHO isn’t quite the corps of experts and policymakers Democrats seem to think it is.

WHO Says Masks Should Not Be Worn in Public When Exercising

The globe's top health organization is OK with maskless people being about 3 feet apart in public.

www.westernjournal.com

 

[sebastiantombs]

The WHO doesn't have an F'in clue. They just dance to the music played by the CCP.

 

[Arjun]

This has seriously changed my perception of the United Nations as a whole. United my @$$

Star Trek is just an illusion (United Federation of Planets). Keep dreaming kids.

Now Even the WHO Is Saying You Shouldn't Wear a Mask in Public All the Time

As political forces in the United States push for strict mask mandates to fight the spread of the coronavirus, new guidance issued by the World Health Organization undermines the left’s claim that people must be forced to wear the protective equipment in public.

The WHO posted the updated recommendations in a Wednesday tweet.

This most recent change, which outlines when people should not wear a mask in public, follows months of inconsistent information from the group about face coverings.

...

“People should NOT wear masks when exercising,” the WHO’s update reads, “as masks may reduce the ability to breathe comfortably.”

When wet with sweat, the organization explained, masks become more difficult to breathe through. It said unmasked people should keep a distance of “at least one meter” from others while exercising.

...

the globe’s top health organization is OK with maskless people being about 3 feet apart in public — something that is now against the law in Washington state.

...

WHO’s disastrously inconsistent guidelines.

If you are healthy,” the organization wrote in February, “you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected [COVID-19] infection.”

...

In late May, more than two months after the WHO declared a global pandemic, it was still recommending that only the sick and those taking care of the infected should wear masks.

...

WHO failed the world with its ineptitude and favoritism toward China.

Even now, the global health group is unable to make a consistent recommendation on the seemingly simple subject of face coverings.

It appears as though the WHO isn’t quite the corps of experts and policymakers Democrats seem to think it is.

WHO Says Masks Should Not Be Worn in Public When Exercising

The globe's top health organization is OK with maskless people being about 3 feet apart in public.

www.westernjournal.com

 

[Oceanslider]

What was that about Hydroxychloroquine?

Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival, but other researchers have doubts

Hydroxychloroquine helped Covid-19 patients, a study in Detroit found.

www.cnn.com

It's just sad how they have to word it and paint the finding. Even the very first sentence... Surprising, Controversial. Who created the false controversy?

 

[Ssayer]

"Other researchers have doubts" because there isn't enough big money to be made off of it...

 

[Frankenscript]

NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again?

A new NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been reached on a flawed premise.

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person's blood rather than the virus itself.

The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.

"The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%," says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

That's in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person's body.

Many people will recall the fatality risk debate that took place prior to and in the early stages of the lockdowns. There was much discussion over how deadly the virus was and what the collective response to the virus should be.

NPR: “Mounting Evidence” Suggests COVID Not As Deadly as Thought. Did the Experts Fail Again? | Jon Miltimore

Prof. Neil Ferguson, who in 2005 said up to 200 million might die from bird flu (about 100 did), told the New York Times in March that the “best-case scenario” was 1.1 million Americans dead from COVID-19. By listening to modelers such as Ferguson, did the experts subject the world to the...

fee.org

Bogus clickbait alt-right article.

The link you posted goes to "The Free Republic" with no link to the the original NPR article cited. Because doing so would be ethical journalism, allowing readers to research and make their own conclusions. It does have a link to its "source" at fee.org (another alt-right site), and they do cite the original article, published more than a month ago (May 28):

Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

Tests for the immune response to the coronavirus are revealing thousands of people who were infected but never got severely ill. The findings suggest the virus is less deadly than it first appeared.

www.npr.org

The gist of the article indeed is that the infection fatality rate seems to be 0.5-1.0%, which we have understood for some time and which is firming up as more and more evidence is collected. The CFR of around 5-7% in the US only factors in clinically sick people, and back as far as January we know there were lots of asymptomatic or weakly symptomatic people with the virus.

The article you cited with "Did experts fail again?" is intentionally trying to undermine confidence in the medical system that is trying to help get us through the crisis. It suggests NPR asserted such a failure when they did not do so. There is no failure by the experts here; the difference between IFR and CFR was pointed out early, referred to often, and only recently have we had enough data to give us a solid estimate. Search back; I reported similar findings here back in May based on the study done in Indiana.

Iterations of the garbage article you cited have been around since early June. It goes on to undermine the actions we've been taking to stem the progress of the disease, cherry picks quotes, and goes on and on pandering to people anxious to find conspiracy at every turn.

Dude, you are better than this. Look at the math. Look at the infection rates state by state.They dropped when people got scared and started staying home, but didn't get below 1 until after the lockdowns. Look at the hospital capacities. Look at their usage. Calculate how much longer we could have held out before the hospitals failed. I've done the math for Indiana, and depending on assumptions it comes to 6 days to 2 weeks, but the outcome was inevitable, without a government order to shut down. My governor (Eric Holcomb, -R) did a good job, and continues to do it. He wasn't part of some conspiracy or misled by one.

 

[juliand]

just got back from the range, 44 degrees out, no breeze, and over 400 folks out there, kids, moms, dads. No one's wearing masks, except for one elderly gent about 92 years old. He had his great grand kids setting up his targts out at 200 yards. We all had a great time.. Life is normal around here.

 

[sebastiantombs]

S.E.Florida and 44 degrees? Heck it was 70 here in NJ when I got up at 5 this morning.

 

[Arjun]

And now its 90 degrees

S.E.Florida and 44 degrees? Heck it was 70 here in NJ when I got up at 5 this morning.

 

[Sybertiger]

just got back from the range, 44 degrees out, no breeze, and over 400 folks out there, kids, moms, dads. No one's wearing masks, except for one elderly gent about 92 years old. He had his great grand kids setting up his targts out at 200 yards. We all had a great time.. Life is normal around here.

Sound like a fishing expedition....don't think you caught any.

 

[Frankenscript]

Big Win for Re-opening Supporter Governor Brian Kemp as Georgia COVID-19 Deaths Hit 3-Month Low

In a bit of news you can file under “good,” Georgia’s COVID-19 deaths have reached a three-month low. I asked a while back when Governor Brian Kemp was going to get an apology from the media. This question was rhetorical, of course.




Georgia Reopens
One of the first movers to reopen the economy, Governor Kemp was attacked by the press and the Health Experts™ as reckless and incompetent. They were dishonest then, and they are dishonest now. No one said COVID-19 was going away. We needed to flatten the curve, and it would appear Georgia has been successful in doing so.

Since reopening on April 22, the 7-day rolling average of deaths due to COVID-19 has consistently declined, according to the state’s dashboard. The last average outside the 14-day window for reporting accuracy is 16.14 per day. This count is the lowest rolling average since March 29. Preliminary data shows continued declines despite reopening and protests that began a month ago.

While we know deaths lag the confirmed cases by between two to three weeks, Georgia’s uptick in daily cases started around May 18. That date is a full month before the 14-day window cutoff of June 18. Part of the reason may be that the age range with the highest total cases is 18-29, where the risk of death is very low. The majority of confirmed cases are under 50 years of age.

It would seem Georgia has done a reasonably good job of protecting the vulnerable and allowing the young and healthy to go about their business. On June 30, Governor Kemp signed a bill strengthening nursing home guidelines, which included protections related to COVID-19.

Big Win for Governor Brian Kemp as Georgia COVID-19 Deaths Hit 3-Month Low

pjmedia.com

Hitting a low point in the rolling average is good news indeed! However, I think anyone declaring victory at this point is very premature. The article also paints a misleading picture of the relationship between cases and deaths.

"While we know deaths lag the confirmed cases by between two to three weeks, Georgia’s uptick in daily cases started around May 18. That date is a full month before the 14-day window cutoff of June 18. Part of the reason may be that the age range with the highest total cases is 18-29, where the risk of death is very low. The majority of confirmed cases are under 50 years of age."

Actually cases held fairly steady during May:



You can see a steep decline that stopped shortly after the stay in place order was lifted for most, quickly going back to a steady state near the peak cases (but due to limited testing early, March would have been a bit higher really). The real uptick started about a month ago in early June and went geometric from there. Over the last week the hospitals started getting a lot more cases; an Army doctor I know who is part of the government response reported a huge uptick in cases they are seeing now. He says admissions are still under control because of lots of younger (less sick) cases. But the more severe ones are coming for sure, even though it took a while for things to percolate.

The point is cases are skyrocketing there, so deaths are sure to follow. Nobody should be claiming victory. It's a disaster unfolding in real time. Yesterday they reported over 3400 new cases


(note: worldometers cases above are based on date of report, not date of test)
\

 

[Parley]

Testing is becoming more widespread and I am sure the case rate will go up. However deaths to this point seem flat. We shall see what happens in the future.

 

[Frankenscript]

Testing is becoming more widespread to I am sure the case rate will go up. However deaths to this point seem flat. We shall see what happens in the future.

I agree we will have to wait and see. The geometric increase in cases (positives) is increasing dramatically faster than the testing capability... More people are getting tested because more people are getting sick. Positivity rates are increasing.

Let's check back in a month and see what happened.

Edit: was @juliand who went to the range. My bad.
Meanwhile I'm glad you had a fun time at the range.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

 

[bigredfish]

 

[juliand]

just got back from the range, 44 degrees out, no breeze, and over 400 folks out there, kids, moms, dads. No one's wearing masks, except for one elderly gent about 92 years old. He had his great grand kids setting up his targts out at 200 yards. We all had a great time.. Life is normal around here.

LOL.... 94 not 44 - it wouldnt have made a difference in attendance anyway..