Money & Economics
- Thread starter bigredfish
- Start date
I’m no economist, just an average Joe so take this with a grain of salt as the ramblings of a madman
I think
- we’re going to see some type of housing crash in the next 3-6 months. Price- which is the biggest problem, (not rates) have peaked and are already falling
- Trump will get a rate cut in Sept of .50 or so basis points. It won’t move the needle but could spur more inflation. He’ll likely point to it not being enough and blame the housing crash on this.
- tariffs will start becoming more visible in your checkbook in 60-90 days
- inflation has not tamed, gas prices arent $1.99 and your paycheck has not and will not go up as a result of the BBB anytime soon
Stock Market:
- it’s not crazy to think Team Trump won’t cook the books (govt stats) the same way Biden did. Which makes understanding what’s really going on that much harder
- it’s a dangerous time. It’s possible Trump finds a way to get Big rate cuts, market goes vertical, temporary euphoria sets in and people spend more, company’s continue to eat most of the tariffs for you because they’re nice guys.
But it ain’t likely
I think
- we’re going to see some type of housing crash in the next 3-6 months. Price- which is the biggest problem, (not rates) have peaked and are already falling
- Trump will get a rate cut in Sept of .50 or so basis points. It won’t move the needle but could spur more inflation. He’ll likely point to it not being enough and blame the housing crash on this.
- tariffs will start becoming more visible in your checkbook in 60-90 days
- inflation has not tamed, gas prices arent $1.99 and your paycheck has not and will not go up as a result of the BBB anytime soon
Stock Market:
- 1) the stock market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
- 2) Everyone is all-in with margin on top of that right now. This isn’t sustainable. No prediction on a market correction because see #1
- it’s not crazy to think Team Trump won’t cook the books (govt stats) the same way Biden did. Which makes understanding what’s really going on that much harder
- it’s a dangerous time. It’s possible Trump finds a way to get Big rate cuts, market goes vertical, temporary euphoria sets in and people spend more, company’s continue to eat most of the tariffs for you because they’re nice guys.
But it ain’t likely
Good point actually and I missed bringing it up.!
They have actually already started "QE" (money printing) by quietly buying their own Treasuries at auction.
They could increase that and give temporary false hope, but that risks even greater inflation and if it became big enough to be really obvious, they'd lose what credibility they still have.
It would of course increase the debt even more and Trump may use all of his $5 Trillion newfound increased Debt ceiling up in record time.
I noticed that the money supply has risen again. Soon you'll be at 40 trillion dollars. How do you protect yourself from inflation?
Don't underestimate the manipulations they can do and the games they can play. It wasn't that many years ago when 1% looked like a good rate, relative to the even worse rates.
Without taking risk in the markets you can't.
Gold and maybe Bitcoin, but I don't buy what I don't fully understand
I'm in fixed securities, cash, bonds and annuities that are somewhat locked at 4-5%. But I'm 66 and am in preservation mode not growth mode.
You don't need to understand Bitcoin. I would argue that no one understands Bitcoin 100%. I don't either, but I buy it anyway.
Last edited:
I guess that rate of return with inflation factored? I know I’m making and have been for 2 years making avg 5% on my brokerage account which is all bonds and treasuries as well as CDs, and 2 annuity’s.
I can tell you within a very small percentage exactly my return a year out will be.
But except for one annuity that pays 95% of what the percentage of the S&P does on the upside (no downside loss) and gains are retained, I have no other upside like the market or Bitcoin.
I can safely say Bitcoin like the market can’t go up forever
If I was 30 I’d be doing things differently. I don’t need or want the risk now
I can tell you within a very small percentage exactly my return a year out will be.
But except for one annuity that pays 95% of what the percentage of the S&P does on the upside (no downside loss) and gains are retained, I have no other upside like the market or Bitcoin.
I can safely say Bitcoin like the market can’t go up forever
If I was 30 I’d be doing things differently. I don’t need or want the risk now
That can’t be right. I know physical gold has almost doubled since Fall of ‘23
I can understand your point of view, of course. I would probably do the same thing at that age. Bitcoin will continue to rise forever because fiat has no bottom.
Not sure where the data is from for that chart but Bonds are performing better than CDs now, I just got this yesterday and have gotten offers like this all year around 5% return. Last year they were about even with CDs around 4%, which is where my Money Market is now.
I have an inherited Bond making a little over 7% Tax Free, so compare to a 9-10% Taxed Investment
These are individual Bonds that pay dividends...Tax Free...so compare to 7-8% Taxed Investment
Last edited:
I'm not entirely sure, but it's after the 7% money supply per year.