yup, the Oil Price game has me wondering also ..
as well the USA stock price game
Robert Pape cover the "Escalation Trap" the USA is in, found this interesting to watch :
Iran's Funeral Just Changed the War | Robert Pape's Warning to Washington
At the Water's Edge
This video features a discussion between host
Scott and Professor
Robert Pape of the
University of Chicago on the current state of the conflict with
Iran following the funeral of the
Ayatollah.
Key takeaways from the discussion:
- Shift in Political Will: While the physical capabilities between the two sides have been shifting for months, Pape argues that the massive public turnout at the Ayatollah's funeral signals a significant shift in Iranian political will (4:47-5:34). He asserts that the trauma of the past four and a half months of war has not caused the population to cower, but has instead fueled collective anger and strengthened resolve (7:24-8:46).
- Ineffectiveness of Punishment: Pape draws on his academic research to explain why airpower, blockades, and leadership decapitation often fail to break civilian morale, instead fostering a "rally around the flag" effect similar to the United States' reaction after 9/11 (11:26-14:52).
- Escalation Concerns: Looking ahead to August 15th, which Pape identifies as a "triple witching hour"—citing the expiration of a 60-day window, critical oil inventory drawdowns, and rising demands from Iran to remove U.S. bases from the region—he warns that President Trump will face significant pressure to escalate the conflict (24:15-27:07).
- Iran's Objectives: Pape suggests that Iran is not looking for a deal but rather seeking to "wreck" the Trump presidency to weaken America geopolitically, which explains why they have rejected recent financial offers from Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff (34:33-35:16).
- The Echo Chamber: The discussion highlights the dangers of the administration operating in an "echo chamber," where access to conflicting information is limited, potentially leading to flawed decision-making regarding the true state of Iranian public sentiment (29:55-31:27).
